Salvador’s Bitcoin Adoption: The Lindy Effect in ActionSlowly but surely.

El Salvador is moving toward mass Bitcoin adoption, despite skepticism. Recent data may seem underwhelming to critics, with only 7.5% of Salvadorans using Bitcoin for transactions, while 92% do not. Some, like economist Steve Hanke, might view these numbers as evidence of failure—but that would be a premature conclusion.

The reality is that El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has already shown signs of success. Beyond boosting tourism, business activity, and international attention, the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender has taken root. With a population of about 6.3 million, roughly 475,000 Salvadorans are now actively using Bitcoin—a significant milestone.

This gradual progress reflects the Lindy effect, which suggests that the longer something persists, the more likely it is to continue growing. For a country like El Salvador, which has experienced unstable currency regimes in the past, it was never realistic to expect rapid adoption from day one.

Building trust in a new financial system takes time.Bitcoin is still maturing as an asset, even with a market value of $1.4 trillion. For it to function as a widely-used medium of exchange, it first needs to establish itself as a reliable store of value. As the public still perceives Bitcoin as volatile, overcoming this skepticism will be crucial to wider adoption—not just in El Salvador but globally.

The development of better custody solutions and user-friendly platforms will also be essential to onboard non-technical users. This evolution is underway, but it’s a long process. While many Bitcoin enthusiasts expect widespread adoption to occur rapidly, data shows that the transition will be slower than anticipated.

Achieving mass adoption will require not only higher Bitcoin prices but also greater ease of use and trust in the technology. Though the timeline remains uncertain, the progress so far is promising. If we think of adoption as a loading bar, El Salvador has already reached 7.5%—a meaningful start on the path toward broader Bitcoin use.