The next prime minister of Japan will be chosen in September by members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
Numerous commentators have characterized the field as fierce and unexpected, given the almost dozen contenders expected to compete. Although there is still evidence of significant faction-based links, the party is trying to eradicate “factional politics,” which is why the contest is exceptionally open and wide. Within the LDP, factions are structured subgroups having their own leadership and set of policy objectives.
Shinjiro Koizumi is one possible front-runner; on September 6, he will announce his candidacy at a news conference.
Presumably, the youngest contender in the race will be the 43-year-old son of former premier Junichiro Koizumi. The two candidates are viewed as the party’s choices for generational transition, along with 49-year-old Takayuki Kobayashi, who has already declared his candidacy.
Koizumi, a former minister of the environment, is well-known for supporting renewable energy. His actions of surfing in the vicinity of Fukushima to allay worries about the safety of the sea following the release of treated wastewater and his status as the first cabinet minister to take a paternity leave in Japan have garnered media attention.
While the public waits for official declarations from potential candidates, Koizumi is the most likely to emerge as the front-runner thus far, according to Rintaro Nishimura, an analyst for The Asia Group with a base in Japan.
He claimed that his father’s reputation as a well-liked reformist populist LDP president and prime minister, along with the perception that he is scandal-free and inexperienced compared to other contenders, make him an appealing candidate.
Nishimura stated that Koizumi has a strong possibility of receiving votes from rank-and-file members throughout Japan in addition to members of the LDP Diet.
A majority of the votes will be required for the LDP candidate to win. The top two vote-getters will compete in a runoff if no candidate wins an absolute majority of the vote.
“Many of the LDP Diet members, especially the younger ones who have served fewer terms in office, are concerned about their survival as they look forward to next year’s general election,” Nishimura stated.
“In my opinion, the safe choice is not the best one this time around. The real question is who can win a general election, and in that scenario, a popular candidate like Koizumi will unavoidably be among the favorites.”
Among the general population, Koizumi has also become one of the most well-liked options. Koizumi and Shigeru Ishiba were matched for national popularity at 21%, according to a poll by the local newspaper Asahi Shimbun. But among LDP supporters surveyed, Koizumi had the greatest support (28%), while Ishiba received 23%.
However, Koizumi’s experience and views on policy are under scrutiny.
Koizumi has grown to be one of the most popular choices among the broader public as well. According to a survey conducted by the local newspaper Asahi Shimbun, Koizumi and Shigeru Ishiba were tied for national popularity at 21%. However, Koizumi earned the most support (28%), followed by Ishiba (23%), among LDP supporters surveyed.
Koizumi’s background and political beliefs are questioned, nevertheless.
“He’s been worried about fiscal policy and deficits, and he has connections to people who have criticized Abenomics, including [former defense chief] Shigeru Ishiba, so we can draw some conclusions from this, but I don’t think we know for sure.” The party is generally leaning toward normality, with the right wing being the exception.
It is premature for Koizumi to assume the top position, according to CLSA strategist Nicholas Smith for Japan.
“Experience is everything. Five elections have been won by him. That represents the very limit of what is appropriate, he stated.
He has also had a small government job overseeing nuclear power safety, but it is not a senior one. Some will argue that you can’t be prime minister if you haven’t completed your other duties.
On September 27, there will be an LDP election.
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